The Scottish Tourist Board published its Domestic sentiment tracker recently. The research is all about people’s perceptions, travel intentions and reassurance needed for future travel. Travel intent is the travel desire and not actual booking behaviour. This for Jan – June 2024.
The general impact of the cost-of living crisis
As at January 2024, the cost-of-living crisis remains at the forefront of people’s minds. Around 7 in 10 have either been “hit hard” or are being “cautious and careful”. The percentage thinking “the worst is still to come” continues to drop. But most people are likely to believe “things will stay the same” as opposed to believing “the worst has passed”.
The impact of the Cost-Of Living crisis on travel intentions
Pessimism around personal finances has a direct impact on travel intentions. The “rising cost-of-living” is the leading obstacle in taking a domestic trip, with the cost-of-accommodation being the main barrier. One in three anticipate reducing the extent of their domestic trip taking. A further third are planning to take the same number of trips but with a cut in spending.
Domestic trips (in both Scotland and across the UK) between January and June 2024 are set to be significantly shorter than the same period in 2023 amongst all life stages and destination types. The lure of overseas travel is also increasing. This is in particular amongst retirees who have taken longest to return to overseas travel following the pandemic.
Notably, UK consumers book overseas travel earlier than domestic travel, making domestic trips more vulnerable to changing circumstances. A strong caveat, however, is that there remains an “intentions gap”.
Actual trips taken in 2023 being far lower than the number intended at the start of the year. Intentions are even higher for 2024 but this comes with a caveat that some of these trips may not materialise.
Further Trends
“The rising cost-of-living” is now at its lowest point as a barrier and only just ahead of UK weather. The barrier of the cost-of-fuel is now at its lowest level since mid 2022 which is encouraging as most Scotland trip takers travel by car.
The appetite to take a domestic trip remains strong with almost half anticipating a trip between January and June 2024. This is higher than in 2023. Scotland is set to benefit being the third most popular destination in the UK, marginally behind London and the South West of England.
Retirees and those from higher income groups are broadly unaffected by the crisis. Three in five of those with a household income of over £100,000 are better off and confident they won’t be impacted. With Scotland attracting a more affluent visitor, it may be more cushioned than other regions of the UK.
Profile of Scotland trip intenders (Jan-June 24)
The profile of Scotland January to June 2024 intenders is notably different to 2023. They are less likely to be retirees (with a higher incidence of older independents and families). They are also more likely to come from London and the South East of England. Previous research, however, showed that intenders from further afield are less likely to convert intentions to actual visits.
Destination types for Scotland trip intenders
The leading destination types for Scotland intenders are “countryside or village” and “large city”. The latter has increased in preference since 2023. The increase in large city preference is evident across other UK destinations and amongst all life stages (particularly retirees). This suggests attitudes are returning to normal post pandemic.
Interest in visiting both Edinburgh and Glasgow have increased since 2023.
Motivations
The leading motivations for a short break or holiday in Scotland are “family time or time with my partner” and “to get away from it all and have a rest”. The latter category is particularly high for Scotland residents. Motivations are broadly consistent with 2023. The “desire to travel somewhere new” and “to learn something new” have both increased.
Activities
The leading three activities planned on January to June 2024 Scotland trips are:
- “walking, hiking or rambling”
- “trying local food and drink”
- “visiting heritage sites”
The largest rise is in “visiting cultural attractions” – an activity that has risen across the UK, and across all destination types.
Transport
“Own car” is the leading mode of transport intended to be used on a January to June trip in Scotland, followed by “train”. Mode of transport does vary considerably by destination within Scotland. Glasgow and Edinburgh intenders are more likely to travel by train. More remote destinations are dominated by car travel.
Accommodation
“Hotel/motel/inn” is the number one accommodation type for intended trips in January to June 2024, although this is less popular than in 2023. “Rented house” is the second leading accommodation type. This is followed by “friends or relative’s home” both having increased on last year (perhaps due to cost pressures).
Find out more at tourismobservatory.scot The study uses a monthly online survey based on a UK nationally representative sample of 1,500 adults aged 16 and over. The sample is then boosted in Scotland to ensure sufficient base sizes for separate national analysis. In total, 1,750 surveys were completed, of which 250 are Scotland residents.